Historically, the economic outlook and consumer spending have a direct relationship: when the outlook is optimistic, consumer confidence increases, leading to a willingness to spend more; conversely, consumers tighten their purses during recessions to ensure enough money is set aside for necessities and emergencies.
But in 2008, Leonard Lauder observed a seemingly counterintuitive consumer behavior: during economic uncertainty, his cosmetics firm, Estée Lauder, reported an increase in lipstick sales. Coining “the lipstick effect,” Lauder proposes that in fraught times, consumers shift to more affordable luxuries, such as entry-level gadgets, rather than completely foregoing “wants”.
And this is still happening today: 2025 research by The Milieu XChange found that consumers in developing Southeast Asian economies are spending more than their mature neighbors and are more likely to make discretionary purchases, such as blind boxes.
Unboxing The Blind Box Appeal
The concept of blind boxes originated in Japan’s “lucky bags” in the 1900s, resurfacing as gashapon in the 1980s, and, in its current iteration, as mystery boxes in the 2000s – all revolving around the key idea of buyers never knowing what they’re going to get.
This works two-fold:
- The element of anticipation and surprise heightens (and prolongs) the emotional arousal triggered by a dopaminergic purchase, and:
- The possibility of getting an item worth more than the initial investment.
The blind box craze is seen all around the globe: in Southeast Asia, for example, popular toy retailer Pop Mart reported 478% YoY growth in H1 2024, boosted by influencers and celebrities such as K-pop idol LISA, who displayed her “pulls” as bag charms.
This same bandwagon effect was also the mechanism by which Funko Pops (another line of collectible toys) became popular in the early 2010s, but mystery boxes took it to the next level:
- The Element of Scarcity. Whether it’s a limited-edition drop or a rare pull, the (perceived) scarcity of an item creates a sense of urgency, encouraging consumers to buy now, think later (Gupta, 2013; Tang & Zhang, 2025). Self-directed consumer experiences such as vendos drive up both mental and physical availability, further lubricating the impulse purchase process.
- Conspicuous Consumption. Plenty of blind-box items are sold in accessory formats, such as keychains and hippers. This drives up displayability, allowing consumers to use these collectibles to signal their social status or group membership. (Veblen, 1899)
- The Teasing Effect. Withholding some information – such as the actual product – generates curiosity and resolving that uncertainty leads to a feeling of satisfaction (Ruan et al, 2018). The cycle of curiosity and satisfaction can be further amplified through more complex unboxing mechanisms, which heighten expectations and increase the perceived value of the product (Bae et al, 2019).
- The Need for Closure. Mystery box drops often have a variety of potential outcomes, or “pulls”; this encourages consumers to make repeat purchases in hopes of completing a set or getting the pull they want, even amid sunk costs (Bauer et al, 2022).
Taken together, these create a powerful product experience that is more valuable than the product’s monetary worth, and coupled with the relative affordability of blind boxes, allows consumers to enter a low-cost, high-reward feedback loop.
To Bandwagon or Not to Bandwagon?
Some brands have taken to creating their own limited-edition collectibles, such as the KFC x Butterbear collaboration, while others have adopted the blind box concept, like Fliggy’s mystery travel package.
But of course, not every brand can create the next Labubu – nor should they aim to.
What brands can do, however, is learn the concepts that made way for mystery boxes to thrive, and understand how these can be deployed selectively:
- Diversify Your Product Range. Adopting a variety of product lines not only allows entry-level consumers to enter the category without diluting brand value, but also opens the possibility for completionist/system users to increase their basket sizes or make repeat purchases.
- Retail Price is Not the Same as Product Value. Rewarding purchase and unboxing experiences, rare, limited-edition items, social media buzz, and even the “flex”-ability all increase the perceived value of products – an indispensable tool in times of economic strain when discretionary expenses are minimized.
- Frictionless Purchase is an Ecosystem. Digital wallets create a frictionless purchase experience at POS, but it all starts with mental and physical availability through a variety of retail channels, such as e-commerce, retail stores, and even self-service channels like claw machines. from top: Labubus on display; KFC Singapore’s collaboration with Butterbear; Alibaba’s Fliggy offers mystery box tickets to a range of destinations across mainland China.